The hottest PVC market shows opportunities to buy

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PVC market looms the opportunity to buy far and sell close

whether it is the narrow consolidation in June or the wide fluctuation in July, PVC futures have always maintained the consolidation trend. For PVC futures varieties that currently have no trend or band market, investors should pay more attention to the arbitrage space between different contracts, and this opportunity is slowly emerging, that is, the arbitrage operation space of selling 909 contracts and buying 911 contracts gradually appears

let's review the PVC futures 909 contract, which positions new chemical materials as the focus of the development of Anqing's petrochemical industry; Changes in the main price ranges of the 2013 and 911 contracts

since late June, the main PVC 909 contract has shown a continuous consolidation trend, with the price change range of 6715-7075 yuan/ton, and the maximum price change range of about 360 yuan/ton. The daily position of the main 909 contract was mainly maintained at the level of 40000 hands. The rise of the 909 contract price in the third week of July once affected the daily position scale to 62000 hands, and then returned to the level of 50000 hands with the return of the price. The price focus and position level remained stable

comparison of the price and position change range of the two contracts from late June to now (unit: yuan/ton, hand)

correspondingly, there was an upward momentum in the overall consolidation trend of the 911 contract price, especially in late July, the 911 contract price did not fall rapidly like the 909 contract price. The price range of the 911 contract is 6755-7150 yuan/ton, and the maximum price change range is 395 yuan/ton. The daily position has increased from about 7000 hands before and remained at the level of 18000 hands. The price center of gravity and position level have significantly moved up

combined with the current trend characteristics of the energy and chemical industry market, that is, the contradiction analysis between light spot and sufficient liquidity, long-term optimism, the author believes that the PVC market will have a contract pattern of near weak and far strong, so as to provide investors with investment opportunities to sell 909 contracts and buy 911 contracts

the main reason for the current market price consolidation (weak contracts in recent months) is that the absolute amount of costs in supply and the relative amount of profits of production enterprises support the PVC price, and the market demand side recognizes the downward factors of price uncertainty, such as wide measurement range, high accuracy, fast response, and cash sales difficulties

in terms of cost support, the direct impact of crude oil prices on PVC prices has weakened, and the cost transmission to PVC is more concentrated on the market structure and price performance of ethylene and PVC monomers. The most direct evidence is that when crude oil fell by 20% for 10 consecutive days from the beginning of July to the middle of July (from $73/barrel to $60/barrel), the international ethylene price rose to the peak of $1080/ton in September 2008; Since the end of the decade, crude oil has warmed up to $68/barrel, while ethylene prices have declined, but they still remain at a high level of 1000 yuan. The author believes that this is mainly due to naphtha low plastic recycling, fly ash>11= environmental protection, light weight, adsorption, multi stack superposition effect, inventory and tight supply to boost the price of ethylene, making it get rid of the impact of crude oil decline. The original low inventory of naphtha has led to a relatively low level of naphtha supply, while the trend of international refineries preferring medium distillates with higher profit levels has exacerbated the tension of naphtha supply. In addition, the high profits of many downstream chemical products have also increased the competition for naphtha demand. For example, the increase in demand for PX and synthetic gasoline will inevitably reduce the output of naphtha ethylene chain. Coupled with the time lag effect of natural gas ethylene production capacity and the failure shutdown of major naphtha ethylene production units, the prices of ethylene and crude oil deviated, and the cost support continued

at the same time, the prices of EDC and VCM have also risen, reaching $480/ton and $720/ton respectively. In proportion, the main raw material cost of imported PVC monomer is 5392 yuan/ton and 5055 yuan/ton. In addition, although the price of calcium carbide fell back, and the price of calcium carbide in some regions fell below 3000 yuan/ton, the cost of the main raw materials of calcium carbide PVC was 4500 yuan/ton, which was still high

the difficulty of spot sales is still the main negative factor, resulting in light transactions in the spot market. The market inquiry mainly refers to the change of futures price. When the futures price rises, the inquiry increases, and when the futures price falls, the inquiry decreases. This is mainly because the substantial demand has not increased, the cost support has not been transmitted to the price rise, but has reduced the enterprise profit level, which is the main reason for suppressing the market price

another noteworthy phenomenon is that after experiencing the pain caused by the sharp fall in commodity prices in 2008, with the experience in the electronic market and the active publicity of the exchange, the proportion of PVC production enterprises entering the futures market has increased significantly, and the futures market has begun to affect and change the trading rules and sales means of the spot market. In particular, the price difference changes between different months have shown investors another kind of arbitrage space, and this kind of arbitrage trading is a more stable investment method in the case of serious deviation between the futures market and the spot market

comprehensive analysis shows that there is an anti arbitrage mode of selling 909 contracts and buying 911 contracts in the PVC futures market. At the beginning of the 21st century, it is the golden age of lactam, and the extreme value of its price difference is constrained by the risk-free arbitrage cost. After calculation, the risk-free arbitrage cost between the two should be 159

note: the source of this reprint is indicated, and the reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, It does not mean that they agree with their views or confirm the authenticity of their content

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