The hottest semi annual report has not yet reached

2022-09-23
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The semi annual report has not been "up to standard" for the time being, and the steady-state trend of foreign trade growth enterprises has been shown.

the semi annual report of foreign trade was first released yesterday (July 10). Although China's import and export growth in the first half of the year has not yet reached the design target of 10% at the beginning of the year, the momentum of stabilization has been very obvious

according to customs statistics, in the first half of this year, the total value of China's foreign trade import and export was 1839.84 billion US dollars, an increase of 8% year-on-year. Among them, the export was 954.38 billion US dollars, an increase of 9.2%; Imports amounted to 885.46 billion US dollars, an increase of 6.7%; The trade surplus was US $68.92 billion, an increase of 56.4%

ZHENG Yuesheng, spokesman of the General Administration of customs, said that the effects of a series of policies and measures to stabilize China's economic growth and promote foreign trade to expand imports will be gradually released. If the world economic situation does not continue to deteriorate, China's foreign trade is expected to achieve the expected growth target of 10% this year

the growth rate of foreign trade in the first half of this year did not meet the standard

the foreign trade in the first half of this year increased by 8% year-on-year, and the downward trend compared with the same period last year is obvious -- nearly 18 percentage points

in terms of exports, the continued weakness of external demand is the main reason for the lower growth rate. In the first six months of this year, the growth rate of China's trade with the EU and Japan's traditional markets almost stagnated, with imports and exports to the EU of 267.82 billion US dollars, a slight increase of 0.7%, and imports and exports to Japan of 162 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.2%

According to Zheng Yuesheng's detailed analysis, if we look at a single month, China's exports to Germany have declined for four consecutive months, and exports to France have declined for three consecutive months. The EU, as China's largest export market, was also replaced by the United States in the first half of this year. However, the recovery momentum of the U.S. economy is still unstable, and the demand for China's export products has not returned to the level it should have in the past. Zheng said that the traditional markets in Europe, the United States and Japan accounted for 42.1% of exports, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1 percentage points

since this year, import has fallen faster than export, with growth rates of 6.7% and 9.2% respectively. In this regard, Zheng Yuesheng explained that, first, China's economy has slowed down and domestic demand has slowed down, which has inhibited imports; Second, the prices of imported bulk commodities fell significantly

in June, China's imports increased by only 6.3% year-on-year. Lu Zhiming, an analyst at the Bank of communications, told the daily economy that the domestic economic growth rate in the second quarter was still slowing down gradually, and the output of major industrial products such as power generation and steel in April and may also fell to a low level. The slowdown in domestic economic growth led to a decline in import demand

signs of export stabilization have appeared

in the sluggish foreign trade data, the export performance is relatively brighter. In June, China's total export value reached 180.21 billion US dollars, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year

stabilizing at a low level and moderate rebound are the key words of foreign trade in the second quarter. From the perspective of monthly trend, after quarterly adjustment, the growth rate of import and export in April was only 6.1%, rebounded to 11.1% in May, and continued to rebound to 12.4% in June. Zheng Yuesheng said that the state has strengthened the pertinence and foresight of macro-control, increased the intensity and pace of macro-economic policy pre adjustment and fine-tuning, and introduced some specific policies and measures to maintain the stable growth of foreign trade, so as to alleviate the cost pressure of export enterprises and consolidate the momentum of China's foreign trade import and export growth to stabilize

Lu Ting, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said that the slowdown in export growth was a major drag on China's economic growth, slowing GDP growth by about 1.5 percentage points. It is expected that the Chinese government will take further easing measures to offset the impact of the slowdown in exports. Hardware and electrical home page title "hardware and electrical - hardware and electrical industry network marketing service provider" "Now build 100 square meters of houses

relevant export stabilization policies are indeed coming out in succession. The State Administration of Taxation and other three ministries and commissions have decided to implement the reform of the foreign exchange management system for trade in goods nationwide from August 1, 2012. Analysts said that this will help speed up the progress of tax rebates and simplify the trade process.

the market did not over interpret the rising surplus

China's monthly trade surplus in June was affected by weak imports and relatively strong exports It reached US $31.73 billion, significantly higher than market expectations, and hit a new high since February 2009

Everbright Securities reported that the expansion of surplus was caused by insufficient domestic demand, rather than how strong exports were. In the future, if domestic policies can be substantially relaxed and domestic demand picks up, the trade surplus should narrow

in the first half of the year, China achieved a trade surplus of US $68.92 billion, an increase of 56.4% year-on-year. The General Administration of Customs explained that while the low growth of foreign trade exports, the independent decline of the domestic economy and the slowdown of domestic demand made the import growth significantly slower than the export growth. Coupled with the low trade base in the first half of last year, the surplus increased significantly in the first half of this year

the market did not over interpret the rising surplus. On the contrary, it seemed that the cold steel pig iron market continued to be weak and stable. For example, according to the Everbright report, the sharp expansion of the trade surplus means that the issuance of foreign exchange may be more, but this will not bring more incremental liquidity to the interbank market, where the ultimate intention of people's experiment on data change is to investigate the force and deformation of samples under the effect of changing force. At present, the bottleneck of economic growth is the lack of credit due to insufficient loan demand, which is not a problem that foreign exchange can solve

under the background of stabilizing exports, it is almost impossible for the RMB to accelerate its appreciation. Most analysts believe that balancing foreign trade will start from expanding imports rather than making an issue of exchange rates. (daily economy)

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