The hottest semiconductor four talk about the powe

Semiconductor: four talk about power semiconductor, the 8-inch driving force of bread and milk

we have been tracking the semiconductor industry since the beginning of the year, and released an 82 page semiconductor in-depth report on March 11, 2018, "semiconductor boom cycle continues, big country strategy promotes industrial development", and launched a picture understanding series accordingly to further interpret the investment logic of the semiconductor industry in the way of vernacular semiconductors

in April, we demonstrated that we are optimistic about the semiconductor sector from the perspectives of the prosperity of the industry, large fund support, the impact of trade friction, national tax policies, the importance of independent control, and the logic of wafer factory construction

in May, we looked at investment opportunities in the semiconductor sector from the perspective of fist and scarcity. From the perspective of fist, we believe that wafer foundry (SMIC, Huahong semiconductor) and memory (Changjiang storage, Zhaoyi innovation) are the two fists for the development of semiconductors in the mainland. From the perspective of scarcity, we suggest paying attention to the leaders in the sub sectors, including northern Huachuang, the leader of semiconductor manufacturing equipment; Changchuan technology, the leader of semiconductor sealing and testing equipment; Analog chip design leader Shengbang Co., Ltd; It plans to acquire Weill shares, which are expected to become the leaders of image processing chips, Yangjie technology, which is the leader of discrete devices, Jiangfeng electronics, which is the leader of semiconductor targets, and Shanghai Xinyang, which is expected to achieve a breakthrough in large silicon chips

since June, we insist that in the long run, the logic of big country strategy + import substitution + business cycle + industrial transfer + innovative application in the semiconductor industry has not changed, and the semiconductor sector deserves long-term attention and follow-up research. We insist on returning to the essence of the industry, further study the semiconductor industry in the way of vernacular semiconductors, and chew down the hard bone of semiconductors. We compare the 12 inch advanced process to poetry and distance, and the 8-inch characteristic process to bread and milk. We analyzed bread and milk from the perspective of industrial development trends, supply and demand analysis, and upstream and downstream industrial chains, and proposed that the 8-inch industrial chain is facing a spring of 8-inch OEM and equipment due to the tight supply and demand caused by the rising price of silicon chips in the upstream, the shortage of equipment, and the strong demand in the downstream

this week, we will continue to discuss bread and milk in depth, focusing on one of the driving forces of the high prosperity of the 8-inch industrial chain: power semiconductors

power semiconductors include power discrete devices (diodes, MOSFET, IGBT, etc.) and power ICs. According to Gartner, the compound annual growth rate of the power semiconductor market will reach 4.9%, and the market size will reach $49 billion in 2021. Considering that ASP of power semiconductors usually decreases gradually with the passage of time, the shipment growth of power semiconductors will be faster. According to IC insights, the compound growth rate of annual shipment of power semiconductors is about 5.2%

automotive and industrial applications are the main driving forces for the growth of power semiconductors. According to Gartner data, the growth rate of industrial applications and automotive electronics in the global semiconductor market is the fastest, and the application increment of industrial applications and automotive electronics mainly comes from power semiconductors. According to IHS data, in 2017, the global power semiconductor market accounted for 34% of industrial applications, 23% of automotive applications, 20% of consumer electronics applications, and 23% of wireless communication applications

we further focus from power semiconductors to power discrete devices. Power discrete devices mainly include diodes, thyristors, MOSFETs, IGBT and IGBT power modules, which are widely used in PC, consumer electronics, home appliances, automotive electronics, led, photovoltaic, wind energy and other industries. In 2017, the global power discrete device market was about US $20billion, accounting for about 5% of the total size of the global semiconductor market. Divided by products, in 2017, IGBT and IGBT power modules accounted for about 30% in total, and MOSFET accounted for about 41%

according to IHS, the compound growth rate of the global IGBT market scale is 8%, and automotive and industrial applications are the main driving forces; The compound growth rate of the global MOSFET market size is 3%, and industrial applications are the main driving force

according to IC insights, the compound growth rate of annual shipments of power semiconductors is about 5 Is your experimental machine calibrated once a year? Answer: according to the regulations, 2%. According to WSTS data, the sales of power discrete devices in 2017 increased by 10.4% year-on-year. Driven by automotive and industrial applications, we expect the power discrete device market to maintain a growth rate of about 5% in the next three years. According to semi data, power discrete devices account for about 16% of 8-inch wafer applications. According to Gartner data, due to the shortage of 8-inch wafer equipment, the global 8-inch wafer capacity growth rate is only%, lower than the growth rate of power semiconductors and power discrete devices

therefore, we can conclude that, driven by automotive electronics and industrial applications, the growth rate of power semiconductor demand exceeds the growth rate of 8-inch wafer capacity, thus becoming one of the driving forces for the high prosperity of the 8-inch wafer industry chain. The mechanism of price rise transmission of tight supply and demand: the demand for power semiconductors in automotive electronics and industrial applications is greater than the supply, which leads to the price rise of power semiconductors. The demand for 8-inch wafer capacity of power semiconductors is greater than the supply, which leads to the price rise of 8-inch wafers

favorable 8-inch wafer foundry

according to our statistics, the 8-inch wafer production capacity of Huahong semiconductor in 2017 was 168k/month; SMIC's 8-inch wafer capacity is 234k/month, accounting for more than 40% of its total wafer capacity; TSMC's 8-inch wafer capacity accounts for about 1% of its total capacity, and the design idea is 14%

liandian 8-inch foundry is expected to increase the price by 20%

according to the economic report, liandian held a shareholders' meeting on June 12. After the meeting, the chief financial officer Liu Qidong confirmed that the production capacity of liandian 8-inch wafer foundry is in short supply, and a one-time price increase has been initiated. The main consideration is that the global 8-inch wafer foundry capacity is tight, coupled with the previous continuous rise in the price of upstream silicon wafer materials, to reflect the market mechanism and cost fluctuations. In addition, liandian will launch the largest production expansion in more than three years for 8-inch factories and ships on the opposite bank, with a range of 15%, which is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2019

Lihao 8-inch equipment factory

Northern Huachuang is the leader of domestic semiconductor manufacturing equipment. A number of 12 inch key integrated circuit equipment, including etch, PVD, single-chip annealing equipment, vertical furnace, cleaning machine, etc., have been applied in domestic leading OEM enterprises and leading memory Enterprises. The company has the market supply capacity of 8-inch semiconductor equipment series products, including Si etcher, metal etcher, PVD, LPCVD, oxidation/diffusion furnace, cleaning machine and other process equipment. At present, it has fully entered the domestic mainstream OEM and IDM enterprises. The 14nm plasma silicon etcher, monolithic annealing system and LPCVD independently developed by the company have successfully entered the mainstream OEM of integrated circuits; 28nmhardmask PVD and Al pad PVD equipment have taken the lead in entering the international supply chain system; The cumulative flow of 12 inch cleaning machine has exceeded 1.2 million pieces; Deep silicon etching equipment entered the Southeast Asian market in 2017

Lihao power semiconductor company

Yangjie technology is the leader of domestic power discrete devices, and the company's semiconductor power devices (diodes, rectifiers, MOSFETs, etc.) account for more than 80% of the company's total revenue. Follow the path of building silicon-based 4-inch, 6-inch and 8-inch wafer factories and corresponding medium and high-end diode, MOSFET and IGBT packaging factories, step by step and advance in an orderly manner. The production lines are put into operation for one generation and reserved for another generation, so as to realize the steady growth of the company. The 6-inch wafer line has realized the mass production of several medium and low voltage trench power MOSFET products and the full series development of Schottky chips. By the end of 2018, the first expiration of production can be achieved, which is expected to continue to improve profitability. The company held a 6-inch wafer line in Yixing in March 2018, which has been able to produce IGBT chips in small quantities. The company is actively planning the 8-inch line and reserving 8-inch wafer and IGBT technical talents. In the future, the company will form the production capacity of power device chips covering diodes, rectifier bridges, MOSFETs and IGBT

under the logic of big country strategy + import substitution + business cycle + industrial transfer + innovative application, it is suggested to pay attention to the leading target in the semiconductor segment:

it is suggested to pay attention to the target:

manufacturing: Huahong semiconductor (8-inch world second), SMIC international, San'an Optoelectronics (Note: Huahong semiconductor and SMIC are covered by the overseas research team of Everbright Securities)

equipment: North Huachuang (manufacturing equipment) Changchuan Technology (sealing and testing equipment)

the enterprise's innovation ability is weak storage: NAND, DRAM

Design: the belt on the force measuring piston of Shengbang (analog chip), Weill (to be acquired by Howell) falls off or is too loose (so that the piston cannot run at a uniform speed)

discrete devices: Yangjie Technology (MOSFET), jiejie micro electricity (thyristor)

sealing and testing: Changdian technology, Huatian technology Tongfu micro electricity